Oil & the Crisis in Ukraine

March 8, 2022

The crisis in Ukraine has brought more volatility to the markets, a spike in oil prices, and concern about our economy. Listen to Don Calcagni, CIO, in the video below, provide perspective on what is happening and what it means. This is a fast moving situation and things will likely change, but here are some highlights:

  • Coming into 2022, U.S. GDP was relatively strong at a real rate of 5.6% (annualized).
  • Pent up consumer demand and soaring labor demand both suggest it’s highly unlikely that the U.S. will slip into recession. Given uncertainty, the Fed is also likely to move a lot slower on promised rate hikes.
  • Higher energy prices will certainly impact U.S. GDP growth, however it doesn’t seem likely that they will dent it enough—at the moment—to push the U.S. economy into recession.

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