The crisis in Ukraine has brought more volatility to the markets, a spike in oil prices, and concern about our economy. Listen to Don Calcagni, CIO, in the video below, provide perspective on what is happening and what it means. This is a fast moving situation and things will likely change, but here are some highlights:
Coming into 2022, U.S. GDP was relatively strong at a real rate of 5.6% (annualized).
Pent up consumer demand and soaring labor demand both suggest it’s highly unlikely that the U.S. will slip into recession. Given uncertainty, the Fed is also likely to move a lot slower on promised rate hikes.
Higher energy prices will certainly impact U.S. GDP growth, however it doesn’t seem likely that they will dent it enough—at the moment—to push the U.S. economy into recession.
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